The real estate market is all over the place, at the moment. Regionally, Napa County has increased inventory, but is showing a slight decrease in pending properties and relatively static numbers for sold properties (a slight increase of 2 more homes sold year-over-year). The median sales price dipped slightly (1.2% to $692,000) year-over-year after trending up March through June.
In Solano County, the median sales price continued to rise, up 2.2%, to $465,000. This reflects a continued overall trend of housing prices rising in the county as more and more people from the City “discover” the area. Inventory was also up 2% year-over-year – but what really stands out is the number of pending homes: up 33.4% from this time last year. Let’s take a little bit closer look at the numbers in three key cities.
There are only 19 homes actively for sale in American Canyon (counting the Rex Home that isn’t on MLS but not the For Sale by Owner homes). Sellers are aggressively pushing the market – especially the lower and mid-range homes in Rancho del Mar, McKnight Acres and Victoria Faire. Even though the median home sales price fell significantly (10.7%) year-over-year, that largely reflects fewer big homes going into contract and selling. For the three month period of May through June, the median sales price rose 2.4%.
The current median price of pending sales stands at about $539,000 so look for the August median sales to decrease some. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that home prices are going backwards. There are several homes in the Rancho del Mar, McKnight Acres and Victoria Faire neighborhoods that are pushing the price from the bottom. What remains to be seen is whether or not the upper end homes will rise or continue to be flat. $700,000 is still an incredibly difficult number to get to in the city although that may be changing.
The American Canyon market is still difficult to pinpoint but here is what I’m seeing:
- Rancho del Mar homes went from low $400,000’s in the beginning of the year to upper $400,000’s currently
- Home prices in Victoria Faire are starting to push from the low $500,000’s to the upper $500,000’s. In particular, 54 Crawford Way & 773 Huntington.
- Homes in the Waterton subdivision are going into contract in the upper $600,000’s but are lingering when they are on in the low $700,000’s.
- Homes in the Preserve along Wetland’s Edge are selling for low-to-mid $700,000’s
- Homes in Vintage Ranch and Montevino are selling in the upper $600,000’s
The Vallejo market is still hot and inventory is on the rise. There continues to be positive stories extolling the virtues of living in the city in the media. Add to that the recent OK by the City Council of the purchase of parts of Mare Island by the Nimitz Group and Vallejo is definitely a city on the rise. However, the median home sales price remained relatively static from this time last year.
The amount of inventory based on closed sales is still extremely slim indicating that it’s still a seller’s market. Anything under 3 months is considered a sellers market and it’s been under 2 months since March. Days on market also indicates a fast market (39 days on market for July). Generally, this means that homes are going into contract within 2 weeks. Inventory is up 5% although sales plummeted by 25.9% year-over-year. However, pending sales are up 20.8%.
What does all of this mean, really? Ultimately, it shows that we had a slow start to the year. Between the rains and the volatility of the market and slightly higher interest rates, homeowners were waiting to put there homes on the market. I believe that you can look for home prices to continue to increase over the next few months but at a lesser rate than in previous years – more in the 3-5% range.
I’ve been hanging out quite a bit in Fairfield over the past couple of months getting my listing ready. It’s still an incredibly fast market.
The median home sales price for Fairfield rose 3.2% to $490,000 year-over-year. Currently, there are a lot of inventory-pending-sold trends that are out of whack, but Fairfield seems to be right where it should be. As inventory has increased, so have sales and pending sales. You can look for Fairfield to continue this trend. Homes that are priced appropriately aren’t lingering. Days on market held steady at 43 which is down just slightly from the 46 day average from the previous three months.
Where do we go from here? I expect Fairfield to maintain its status quo with home prices also heading upwards in the 3-5% range. The sold price vs. list price is running at 98% and has been within this range – for the most part – for the past 14 months. This is good news as it means that sellers are continuing to be realistic in their pricing strategy.