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Lies. Damn Lies. And Statistics.

Former British Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli once quipped that “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.” January’s numbers for American Canyon bare this out beautifully.

Median and average sales prices both dropped dramatically from January, 2020. Median days on market more than doubled from the month before. Sales price was only 96% of the list price…what gives?

And therein lies the rub. The largest culprit for the skewed numbers is where the sold homes are located. Last month, four of the ten homes sold were in Rancho del Mar for an average price of $465,000. This is an increase of 1%. However, take away 15 Joan Drive which needed a substantial amount of work and languished on the market for most of the year, and the average price jumps to $480,000 with a year-over-year increase of 4.3%. Keep in mind, however, that sales price is a lagging indicator. They show where the price was 30-60 days ago.

34 Alta Loma sold last September for $450,000, has been flipped and came back onto the market on February 1, at $524,888 and went into contract within 6 days. This is probably a truer indication of where the Rancho del Mar market is today.

However, only two of the larger homes in town sold in January – both for well over $700,000. 250 Park Lane sold for $740,000 earlier this month. Several other larger homes are currently in contract for well over $700,000. What is most stunning about these homes is that there are multiple offers on almost every single one of these larger homes. 745 Huntington had 6 offers (sold $20,000 above asking price); 250 Park Lane and two offers (sold $11,500 above asking); and 2 Sadie Place had 3 offers and sold for $775,000.

There is still a significant inventory shortage in American Canyon and regardless of where you’re looking, there will be multiple offers. As a buyer, it’s extremely important that you are patient and recognize that you may have to make multiple offers and that it will take time to find the right home at a price and location that you want. As a seller, remember that there will be multiple offers and that the market is still moving extremely fast. Be prepared to close escrow quickly and know where you are going to go.

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