A Quick Recap of the #’s

Homes actively for sale decreased across the region except for American Canyon and Fairfield. With such a mild winter, I expect the selling season to start earlier; except that I’m not seeing that yet. I know, it’s only the beginning of the first week of February and there’s still lots of time. But I was out in my garden this weekend pruning my apple tree (because that’s what you do in February) and it looks like it’s starting to bud already. Ominous sign for the weather – although I’m not sure what it says about sales this coming spring.

I’m somewhat amused at the variations of the weekly median list price – especially for a city like American Canyon or Benicia where there is just so little inventory. Speaking of Benicia, I’ve been relatively convinced for a week that the only inventory coming on and off were condos and town houses. The numbers don’t bare that out, but the feeling persists. The condo market is certainly hot over there.

I am waiting for a flood of homes to come on the market…or at least a strong trickle. I know that we talk about it every week, but I just don’t see how things can continue. I’ve been beating the drum beat of 300 new homes coming to the market in AmCan over the summer…but if they’re priced anything like the new build in Cordelia, I just don’t see it helping enough people. Unless…unless you have a whole bunch of owners in Rancho del Mar deciding that they want to move up into new construction. That only works if buyers are willing to wait on new homes to be constructed, etc. Lots of what if’s…

Which brings to mind that I need to know more about the new construction in general. There’s another development in Fairfield. The One Lake development appears to have condos, duplexes, and 3 types of single family homes (except that the condos and duplexes are listed as “coming soon”). One Lake is just off of Vanden & Peabody. Dixon is growing like there is no tomorrow…and yet with supply chain woes and the average starting point in the mid-$600,000’s not sure how these other areas will positively affect entry-level buyers and down sizers which feels like where we need the most help at the moment.

The numbers are staggeringly consistent. While I don’t necessarily expect to see significant volatility from week-to-week, I was expecting to start to see a pattern emerge beyond the same old story of lack of inventory. The Center for California Real Estate (CCRE) – the research arm for the California Association of Realtors (CAR) just released their 2022 market prediction. They’re expecting a 5.2% decline in units sold for the year but a 5.2% increase in sales price. The official January numbers haven’t been released by BAREIS, but so far that seems to track.

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