First, let’s get the difficult stuff out of the way…🥰 Happy Valentine’s Day.

I’m constantly amazed that such a small day often causes so much trouble. I find it particular amusing that the Catholic Church has basically said that, you can still have your day, but we’re not really sure that he exists. We do know that he was martyred, so maybe the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre isn’t so far off, after all.

But enough of this, schmaltz, onto this week’s numbers. If you’re more visual, here are the slides for the week. More analysis below the fold.

I think that I’m starting to see some interesting trends emerge. It appears as though higher end, “luxury” properties are a little slower to come to the market. Green Valley & Rancho Solano have virtually nothing on the market in Fairfield. Benicia is also down. I have no clue as to what’s going on with Cordelia…it’s not typically consider part the luxury market, but it only has 4 homes on the market 3 of which are new construction.

I’m thinking that the reason for depressed inventory (beyond the usual) could be a result of instability with regards to the mortgage rates. The volatility that we’re seeing affects all aspects of buying and selling, and not just at the margins. Depending on where sellers and buyers have their money parked, this could have significant effect on their bottom line.

The lone exception at the moment, is American Canyon.

American Canyon active/pending listenings from 1/24/22

There are also two homes listed as “Coming Soon” in MLS. The biggest problem with looking at the American Canyon market is that – even in the best years – there is so little inventory that can make it look like there are trends that just aren’t there. Right now, however, I don’t believe that to be the case.

The new construction homes coming to market in Fairfield are at a completely different price point than in the older parts of Green Valley (i.e. the $1M homes) and Rancho Solano. Although still expensive, they are by no means luxury. As for Benicia?? I’m not sure that they’ve had any significant development in over a decade. They’re basically built out. Sellers in these areas can afford to be a little more patient while they’re figuring things out. American Canyon is in a little bit different situation.

Watson Ranch promises to bring 1250 new homes over the next 7-10 years and will likely be priced competitively with the current housing stock throughout the City (this includes Rancho del Mar, pretty much the oldest part of town). In addition, Canyon Estates promises to bring another 35 high-end homes along the Newell Ridge. These homes will directly compete with the larger homes in Vintage Ranch, also near the high school.

More immediately, there are roughly 300 new single family homes being built in the relatively near future. These homes will almost certainly help to stall the continued price increases…probably relatively quickly. There is a sense of urgency now, for sellers to get into the market. I am not saying that the bottom is going to drop out of the market. I am saying, however, that the days of double digit price gains may be over sooner in American Canyon than the rest of the region.

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