The latest numbers are in, and March looks like it was an extraordinarily robust early spring. Median sales price in American Canyon was up by over 20% year-over-year to $891,000. This is the highest median sales price in a month in the history of American Canyon. The home that sold for the highest price was 18 Andrew Road, coming in at $910,000. But that’s not the story that is sticking out in my mind today: The market is starting to catch up to the seller that is aggressively pricing their listing.

As you can clearly see in the above chart, homes are only selling at 93% of the list price (or 7% below) in American Canyon. There is a clear downward trend beginning last May and continuing on into last March. Additionally, the average number of days on market has shot up. To answer the unasked question: no, the market isn’t necessarily slowing down. American Canyon is an anomaly. The average sales to list price in the region is still 102% and the average number of days on market is still less than a month

These American Canyon numbers are a clear warning sign to sellers: overprice at your own peril.

Regionally, the median sales price rose 12.6% from last March. Inventory is rebounding slightly. Homes on the market are up 34% from last March; there were just a handful fewer new listings this year from last year. Pending sales are rising at approximately the same rate as homes for sale, so it does look like the underpinnings of the real estate market is fairly solid. Most experts are readjusting their forecasts upwards. For now, American Canyon really does look like an outlier.

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