Monthly American Canyon Market Recap

The American Canyon real estate market is fast and you better not wait too long or you’ll miss out completely.

My listing at Rio del Mar sold at $415,000 which was $45,000 above asking. There were 4 total offers. It’s at the entrance of the Rancho del Mar subdivision and boasted a huge back yard and an additional 500±sf of living space. It has some foundational and drainage issues which dragged the original list price down but which made the offers all that much more remarkable. Last fall a home on the other side of the creek in the 100 block of Los Altos struggled to sell at full price (~$400,000) even though it was turnkey. What a difference 6 months make.

Higher end homes are not selling quite as fast but there is definitely still a market for them. This is good news as the original investor in Canyon Estates continues to look for someone to develop them. I still think that a $1M home in the AC will be difficult without something happening with Broadway and/or Watson Ranch.

Even though there were double the amount of homes on the market year-over-year for March, the inventory still fills tighter than it has been for a while. Homes priced in a traditional first time home buyer price range are still going fast. Overall, there is only a little over a month’s worth of inventory (the amount of time it would take to sell all active homes). This data backs up the “feeling” that we are in a fast market right now.

AC Months of Inventory

What this chart doesn’t show is that of the 19 homes on the market, at least 7 are either businesses or should be looked at as commercial potential – especially those along Broadway/Hwy 29. If you’re interested in one of the many properties for sale along Broadway, make sure that you talk to Brent Cooper over at the City before you start trying to put up a development that the property isn’t suited for…those non-conforming homes are a big issue.

The good news for buyers is that the median selling price for a home in American Canyon has stayed relatively stagnant over the first quarter. AC Median Avg SoldI am continuing to see Rancho del Mar homes drag down the home prices in McKight Acres, Napa Square, Napa Meadows, etc. The Rancho homes that are selling for a premium (mid-to-high $400,000’s) are turnkey and recently remodeled. Sellers in the mid-market that aren’t willing to do the same are taking a hit on it and the homes are lagging…there’s a lesson here if sellers and listing agents are willing to listen.

 

Vallejo January Market Roundup

Vallejo continues to be one of the hottest markets in the country and why not. Investors are going in and rehabilitating older homes so that the sparkle once again. It continues to be an appealing destination for Millenial first time home buyers working in San Francisco or the East Bay.

Inventory continues to be a problem but it isn’t falling which is good news. Median sold price is up 17% from last January.

Vallejo median sold

It remains to be seen whether or not the current stock market correction will have unexpected ripple effects on the lower price points. My biggest concern is that the correction will make move-up buyers even more wary as there are fewer and fewer homes on the market in the upper end.

There’s a lot to be excited about the future of Vallejo and that message is starting to kick up additional interest. Large swaths of the areas West of I-80 are architecturally interesting, particularly in the Heritage District, St. Vincent’s Hill and downtown.

The city is continuing to transform itself with a burgeoning art scene (check out the 2nd Friday Art Walk each month!) and food scene – if you haven’t checked out the League of Chefs shame on you. All of these add up to a bright future and continue strong increase in housing prices.

American Canyon January Market Update

The American Canyon real estate market got healthier in December as the number of homes sold nearly doubled and the median sales price rose 17.5% month-to-month.

AC Median

The $490,000 median home price reflects increased first time home buyer demand. This past summer and fall there were fewer big houses on the market driving down the overall average list price and median sales prices. Inventory is a huge concern as of late and American Canyon is no exception. MLS only shows 17 homes on the market. A number of these properties are currently used as a business (group homes for individuals diagnosed with a development disability) or are zoned community commercial. That leaves fewer, true single family residential homes on the market.

AC Sold Pending

This lack of inventory is good for homeowners as they continue to build equity. The city isn’t quite back to 2007 prices but it’s close. If there is a continued lack of inventory look for home prices to go well beyond the expected 5-8% increase this year. The spring selling season will tell us a lot about what the rest of the year will look like.

December 2017 Market Update

Dec 2017 Price

OMG! The median sales price and the average sales price in November plummeted in American Canyon…by a lot.  And there are only 20 homes for sale. And the number of homes sold dropped by 1/3 year over year…and…and…and…

It’s easy to get caught up in the hysteria of the market place and feel like the sky is falling out from under us…which it isn’t. The median price dropped 17.5%± because we’re starting to see a lot of the smaller, older homes come onto the market. Of the nine homes that sold last month, six were in Rancho del Mar or Canyon Creek. Last year, only three of 14 homes were in the Rancho subdivision.

I am seeing one major trend right now: Rancho del Mar is pushing the bottom of the market upwards at a fast pace as investors start to flip homes that they’ve had as rentals since the recession. These homes are (or appear to be) turnkey and buyers are flocking to them. However, buyers are more discriminating than in the past couple of years. Sellers have to do more than put lipstick on a pig; remodels have to be well done or the buyers are willing to walk away.

There are 17 homes that should close escrow soon (if they haven’t already) so I expect December to be a YUGE month. It will be interesting to see how things start to shake out as we look towards another year of rising house prices.

Dec 2017 Sold Pended

Are we in for another housing burst?

I get that question at least once or twice every single open house. Short answer is I don’t think so. The longer answer is always a little more complex. No, we aren’t in for another housing collapse but we are headed straight for another housing crisis…or as one editorial put it: “housing catastrophe.”

It is possible – especially here in the Bay Area where there are myriad high paying jobs in a variety of professions – that home prices will continue to rise. It is possible that agents…good agents…in an attempt to win every possible advantage for their client will continue to write offers without appraisal contingencies or without inspection contingencies. It is possible that we will continue to see 8-10 offers on beautiful homes under $400,000 until there are no more homes under $400,000.

The money and solid loans are there for the market to continue to shoulder the craziness that is this year’s spring market…but in no way, shape, or form is this a healthy market. American Canyon home prices were up 17% year-over-year. It is on the slow march to pre-recession prices.

The Vallejo real estate market is also on the rise. Realtor.com has it as the hottest market in the country for the 4th month in a row.  It deserves it too! Vallejo is slowly re-imagining itself with it’s second Friday art walk and as a foodie’s delight with pop-up dinners on the second Saturday of every month(expect for this one, of course).

So no, I don’t think that we’re in a bubble but there are real concerns about the price of housing. Individuals whose families have lived in the American Canyon-Vallejo area for generations can no longer afford to live here. It says as much about stagnant wages as it does about desirability of the area. My sincere hope is that housing prices even out so that we can keep a diversity of families in the area.

1/30/17 Napa-Solano Inventory

Solano inventory dropped for the second straight week last week while Napa County remained relatively static. Anecdotally, the housing market is still moving at a brisk pace throughout the region. Sales are down in American Canyon but prices are way up.  This appears to be the case throughout the rest of the region. After the first 30 days it appears as though the 2017 forecasters are going to be right on.

napa-solano-update-013017

1/26/17 Inventory Update

Inventory dropped in Solano County this week while Napa County remained relatively stagnant. At the same time, mortgage rates continued to tick up. The big real estate news this week, however, came on Friday as the new administration decided not to cut the insurance premium on FHA loans. It’s too early to say exactly what this means but it will definitely hurt affordability for first time home buyers.

napa-solano-update-012617